Cautious optimism was the mood of the 240 attendees at the DTN/The Progressive Farmer Ag Summit this past Dec. 5 through 7 in Chicago. Growers from more than two dozen states swapped strategies and grilled farm program and business experts during the 21/2 day event at the historic
Palmer House Hilton, just off
Chicago's Magnificent Mile.
Acting Secretary of Agriculture Chuck Conner kicked off the event reminding listeners that farm income had just hit an all-time record, along with roaring demand for ag exports. "Imagine the impact on corn prices in 2007 if we hadn't had the foresight to implement farm policy a decade ago [Freedom to Farm] that allowed farmers to plant based on the market," Conner said, before chiding Congress to move the stalled farm bill to quick completion.
Biofuels are stealing all the headlines, but "whether we produce another gallon of ethanol in the U.S. doesn't determine U.S. agriculture's future," argued Carl Casale, Monsanto executive vice president. He told the crowd that China's unparalleled growth in middle-class consumers will be the real market maker in the foreseeable future, requiring major imports from the U.S., Argentina and Brazil to meet demand.
Competing demands from fuel and export markets could lead to more specialization of corn in North America, however. "We still have the capacity to double the amount of corn-based ethanol in this country; we'd just have to grow fewer soybeans here to do it," Casale added.
With turbulence in commodity and fertilizer prices, grower panels shared their own anxieties about the future. While some grain producers had already hedged as much as 75% of their 2008 crop, Iowa farmer Terry Jones was taking a wait-and-see attitude on 40% of the 2007 crop and 80% of his new crop. Forward pricing can make you money in this environment, "but it also can lead to losses, depending on what your input costs are for '08 and '09," Jones said.
In contrast, Illinois pork producer and elevator owner Dan Koster had cautiously booked all his 2008 needs and had begun to price 2009, rather than risk paying $7 should drought next summer tighten corn supplies even further.
Former University of Nebraska football coach Tom Osborne, who motivated his teams to three national championships, capped the Ag Summit with his own pep talk to business owners. Success in athletics, in business or even your personal life revolves around character, he said.
Osborne believes that if you hire people with intelligence and energy, but without character, they'll only get you into trouble. Likewise, leaders need to care about their team players. "If you care about your employees as people," he said, "you can ask them to do incredibly difficult things."
For conference highlights, including stories on price and weather outlooks for 2008 and audiotapes of some of the conference presentations, go to www.dtn.com/agsummit. To get on the 2008 Ag Summit mailing list, e-mail Teri.Thiele@dtn.com.